BRAZIL 2022 DEMOCRACY HANGOVER: LULA OR BOLSONARO

 

In the run-up to Sunday’s October 2^nd 2022 general election, a climate of both fear and tension eclipsed Latin America’s largest country and one of the oldest democracies in the world, Brazil. Exchange of angry words and vituperations were common place during the electioneering campaign which significantly has contributed in making the 2022 general election in the country the most polarized in its election history. With the first round of voting come and gone and neither of the two front-runners, Lula and Bolsonaro securing the constitutional 50% pass mark, Brazilians may well be set for another season of uneasy calm until it is relieved of the current hangover over its political space through a conclusive Presidential re-run.

As is the case with general elections, an estimated 156 million registered voters participated in the voting process to elect the President and Vice-President, a third of the senate, 513 members of the House of Deputies, State Governors and Legislators. A total of 11 candidates ran for the country’s top job and the result produced two front-runners with none having a clear cut victory. Former left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 76, polled a total number of 57,259,405 votes representing 48.4% to top the table over his runner-up and incumbent right-wing President, Jair Bolsonaro, 67 who polled a total of 51,072,234 votes representing 43.2% of votes cast. With neither of the leading candidates polling 50% of total votes cast, the political stage of Brazil is gearing up for a re-run on October 30, 2022.

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been out of political power for 12 years now. He has tried, to no avail, to make a come-back to public life all those years, but no thanks to the political mines that keep exploding at every turn and bend of his path. Lula was born on October 27, 1945, a Brazilian politician and former union leader. He was a founding member of the Workers’ Party (PT) and ran for president three times before winning in 2002 general election and was later re-elected in 2006. No doubt a charismatic politician and a poor metal worker with a humble beginning, Lula’s presidency is often remembered for massive social welfare programs “Bolsa Familia” and “Fome Zero” which lifted millions out of poverty. As President, he played a prominent role in international issues and politics including activities related to the nuclear program in Iran and climate change. This earned him the description, “a man with audacious ambitions to alter the balance of power among nations”

Lula left an enduring mark on Brazilian politics and has often been referred to as one of the most popular politicians in Brazilian history. In early 2016, he was appointed Chief of Staff under President Dilma Rousseff but this was blocked by Justice Gilmar Mendes of the Supreme Federal Court due to ongoing investigations. In July 2019 Lula was convicted of money laundering and corruption in a controversial trial and sentenced to nine and a half years in prison. Sergio Moro who presided over the case later became President Jair Bolsonaro’s Justice Minister. In April 2018, Lula was arrested and imprisoned for 580 days. Brazil’s “Clean Slate” law disqualified him from running for office in 2018. In November 2019, the Supreme Court of Brazil overturned his conviction as unlawful and in March 2021 Justice Edson Fachin of the Supreme Court absolved him of every wrong doing ruling that the lower court lacked jurisdiction over the matter. That same month, the apex court ruled that Justice Sergio Moro had given a biased judgement on Lula’s case. In April 2021, the apex court restored Lula’s political rights. On June 24 2021, the Supreme court annulled all cases Sergio Moro brought against Lula paving the way for him to be able to run for a third term in office.

Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, on the other hand was born 67 years ago in the town of Glicério, state of São Paulo. He became a captain in 1988 and in 1990 was elected to the lower chamber of Congress and re-elected for six times. He served as a congressman for 27 years and became a vocal critic of same-sex marriage, abortion, affirmative action, drug liberalization and secularism while also advocating for closer ties with the US and Israel. In March 2016 he declared his candidacy for the presidency and joined the Social Liberal Party in 2018 choosing retired General Hamilton Mourão as his running mate. Jair Bolsonaro won the first round of the Presidential election in 2018 but failed to get over the line. He secured victory at the run-off with the Fernando Haddad, the Workers’ Party candidate. Bolsonaro’s presidency especially first year has been credited with a slow recovery of the economy, and sharp fall in crime. He, however, rolled back protections for indigenous people and facilitated deforestation. An ally of former US President Donald Trump, he is accused, like his friend of mismanaging the corona virus – dismissing it, promoting its unproven treatment with hydroxychloroquine as well as discouraging the use of vaccines in a country where more than 685,000  persons have died of the deadly virus.

Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro appears to be a litmus test for the latter’s presidency but the forth-coming run-off would be a verdict on Bolsonaro’s overall performance. Lula seems to have made a strong come-back with the broad coalition which he has built especially among his political opponents. For example, his running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, is one of his former political rivals and a former center-right governor of São Paulo. Lula equally demonstrated good carriage and decorum of a statesman throughout the electioneering campaign in the run-up to the general election, while President Jair Bolsonaro made utterances and rhetorics that seem to suggest he might not accept defeat if he loses at the polls.

Like the Hegelian Absolute Spirit moving to the land of self realization, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seems to have yet another date with destiny at the Palácio da Alvorada. For the past 12 years, he has weathered a number of political storms to keep his neck above Brazil’s political waters. As the two candidates travel the length and breadth of the country in search of votes, the world and indeed Brazil may well need the characteristic touch, maybe one more time, of its charismatic President, perhaps for the last time.